A new analysis by the tourism intelligence platform DataGreat explores the potential impact of a second disruption to Russian outbound tourism on European and eastern Mediterranean travel patterns. This study, conducted using DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator and based on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, investigates the implications of intensified sanctions, payment restrictions, ruble depreciation, and further closures of indirect travel routes on Russian outbound travel.
The initial shock to Russian outbound tourism, prompted by the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, resulted in significant sanctions, airspace closures, and disruptions to payment corridors, which shifted Russian leisure travel away from European Union destinations. Instead, countries like Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt became the primary beneficiaries of this redirected travel. EU destinations that once had significant Russian tourist numbers experienced a decline of over 70% in subsequent years.
The simulator models the impact of a further decline in Russian outbound travel, ranging from 20% to 35% over a year, on various destinations. It categorizes the exposure into three primary areas: EU destinations still reliant on Russian tourists, Mediterranean regions dependent on package holidays and charters, and absorber markets like Türkiye, which may see shifts in tourist demographics if Russian numbers fall further. The simulator also highlights operators most vulnerable to these changes, including charter-dependent package operators and resorts catering to Russian-speaking groups.
To mitigate these risks, the simulator suggests strategies such as diversifying source markets towards Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning products to appeal to European tourists, and implementing currency hedging for businesses with significant ruble-based cash flow. These insights are further supported by DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which provides weekly risk assessments for 42 destinations across six tourism risk categories, allowing for a detailed understanding of potential shocks.
DataGreat plans to release destination-specific insights from the simulator continuously until 2026, offering credentialed media access to comprehensive simulator outputs for each of the 42 destinations covered in the WTTC report. As a platform, DataGreat combines various tools, including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and Crisis Impact Simulator, to provide a comprehensive overview of tourism dynamics, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye.
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